The Age of Bullies.

I was going to call it "The Age of Empires". But that is not accurate. You would have thought that human existence would have said goodbye to this rubbish. But alas, thanks to the brilliance of Putin, Xi and Trump, it's back in fashion. Financed by the technology bros and Russian oil oligarchs who think they are one step under gods. If you are big and can bully other nations, you're the man!

Debt is a real problem too. The more debt a country has, the less adaptable they are. The less the can absorb shocks, whether they are man made or financial shocks. They all end up hitting the bottom line. And whether that debt is externally or internally owed, in the end someone eventually takes the haircut. That could make big bully countries that owe a lot of debt even more aggressive. Why make yourself unpopular with your own people by forcing them to take a haircut when you can force people in another country to take the haircut for you. So countries like China which owes maybe 300% of it's GDP (no one really knows), the Japanese who owe 200% and the Americans who owe $18 trillion and acknowledge that it's a problem.

That leaves middle and small nations out in the cold. What ever we have to offer is up for grabs. Forget about rule of law. It's now rule of "What ever I say, goes". We are talking about Xi, Trump and Putin. You can add the fat North Korean dictator and the Supreme leader of Iran if you want. But unless Iran gets nukes, in that world, it will be absorbed. 

I live in Australia. We trusted the USA to maintain the world order. Under Trump, that hasn't happened. We feel adrift, disillusioned. What we could rely on for 80 years is no longer there. The moral true North that the USA tried to represent is gone. Trump seems to favour the Imperial Age where his country is one of those on top. During the last Imperial Age India went from about 25% of world GDP to 4%. The rest was shipped back to Britain. So you may as well have called the "Imperial Age" the "Age of Extraction". 

The only solution is to become big ourselves and become one of the bullies in this new age of bullies. But there is no time for that. The only thing left is to join a grouping of small nations. People we can rely on. People who, if they left the group, would be consumed by the bullies. That is why Australia is busy talking to such people. Like every other small and mid-sized economy, we are now vulnerable. 

If Mr Trump doesn't try to hold power by both legal and illegal means, I will be astounded. That may lead to civil war in the USA. If the USA were the "World Police", now that they are off the scene, other bullies can do what they want. An invasion of Taiwan becomes more possible. Tactical nukes in Ukraine become more possible. 

Imagine if Putin promised Trump, "You stay out of Europe, and I'll stay out of North and South America. And I will get my best friend Xi to agree." That would explain why Trump is withdrawing from NATO and closing in on Venezuela and threatening Canada and Greenland. He actually believes Putin will keep his word. Even though he never has. 

If the world goes further down this track, I would not want to be Canada or Panama. They are clearly on Trump's hit list. And if an agreement has been made to stay out of each other's sphere of influence, then I wouldn't want to be Taiwan. Japan will be close behind. What a mess that will be! 

It amazes me how many absolute dicks get into extremely powerful positions in the world. After they reveal themselves to be dicks through the stupid decisions they make, they double down on those decisions. It's like they have drunk too much of their own coolade. That's what the world feels like right now. The amazing thing is, such a dangerous number of people follow these morons into this black hole of forth coming disaster.