Defending Australia

The World is fast losing its predictable order. Trump seems to be doing incredible damage to a reasonably successful Pax Americana structure almost daily. The Australian Government has attached itself to America as a way of defending our vast shores. 

We were right to do so. As Kim Beazley once said, in history, there has never been an underpopulated country which is resource-rich and has not been invaded. We have always needed a powerful friend and patron. AUKUS is the latest incarnation of this policy. But with Trump in the White House, is it just one big terribly expensive mistake? Quite likely. And with Xi Jinping's speech about being ready for war by 2027 on constant rewind, these are troubling times. 

Maybe we shouldn't build 9 nuclear submarines. If they get destroyed or they don't work or they come too late (they are at least 15 years away), then we have burned a huge amount of precious taxpayers' dollars. We can't afford to get this wrong if the threat is as imminent as many "in-the-know people" would have us believe. I understand that if Taiwan falls to mainland China, most of our trade goes through that Strait. China could seriously hamper our efforts to diversify our trade if it controls Taiwan. 

However, we need to look to the Black Sea for our inspiration. The Ukrainians didn't have a navy, yet they pushed the Russians back into their own territory with drone warfare. 70% of the latest casualties in the Ukraine war are from drones. Can we make drones that fly, go on water, and hide underwater? Can we run and recharge drones from remote solar-powered platforms, which could also hide underwater if threatened? Can these drones be made to fly, swarm, and survey our surrounding territory? Can every drone be loaded with AI so they can attack in a coordinated way to pin down and distract an enemy threat long enough so a long-range missile from land can hit the identified target? Can our drones act as their own "Starlink"? The possibilities are endless, but time is not.

If you are up against a much larger population, you can't fight them per population. You need drones. We need to be able to make everything here on mass, as our supply lines will surely be cut. We need to make at least a quarter of our new recruits in the defence forces drone pilots. We need to get ready to fight a 21st-century war, not a 20th-century war. If you did have real soldiers on the front lines, they should be snipers who can either shoot real bullets to kill or electronic tags onto valuable military targets. When the electronic tag sticks to its target, it automatically turns on, calling in an artillery strike. So the electronic signature comes from the target. The sniper emits no electronic signature. 

The AUKUS agreement will cost us about $360 billion, a large share of which goes on 9 subs. Once those subs are destroyed, they can't be duplicated for decades. It's hard enough building them in peacetime whilst supply lines are intact. Imagine trying to rebuild replacement subs during wartime. I'd prefer to diversify my risk in potentially millions of deadly and brilliantly designed drones and long-range missiles, all talking to each other. And none of them are infeasible to duplicate, even during wartime when supply lines are stressed. I'd also prefer to train thousands of drone pilots, designers, repairers, and manufacturers. 

Instead of buying 9 imaginary nuclear subs, let's buy all their old bombers the Americans are about to retire and replace with their new B21 Spirit bombers. These planes exist. The airstrip they can take off from exists. Consider the havoc they could cause if those bombers could drop air and sea drones, not just bombs and missiles. What if the drones could fly back to the bombers to download information and recharge and reload. 

Let us learn from the Ukrainians. They took on a much larger force in the Black Sea, and they won. And they did it from scratch after the war started. We may have as much as a decade to prepare if we are lucky. And once we have done this, we will not be subject to the unpredictable nature of politics in some far-off country ever again. Hopefully....

I know what you are going to say... The Black Sea is a confined area. It's easier to dominate such an area. Well, it's just a case of numbers and design. Look how fast the Ukrainians are improving their drones. They even have drones that can fly over 1000 km now. It was barely 300km just a couple of years ago. We need to get serious. Stop being surprised by Chinese ships doing live fire drills between Australia and NZ, and telling our population to be calm. We get the message China is sending us. We aren't stupid!

The Americans want us to increase our defence spending to 5% of GDP. Our economy has a serious problem with a lack of complexity. This is an ideal opportunity to fix that in the name of national security. Think of all the new industries we could foster here in Australia in the name of defence spending. You might say that increasing taxes to pay for this is a good way to lose the next election. I would counter that by saying that not increasing taxes to pay for a massive increase in defence spending is a good way to lose our freedom. 

How are we going to fund this? Increase the GST from 10% to 15%. Tell people they have to get real now. Not wait till all hell breaks loose. We spend about $55 billion on defence each year. An increase of 5% in the GST would provide about another $42 billion to our defence budget. That's almost getting to the 5% of GDP the Americans want us to reach in defence spending. We live in extraordinary times that require sacrifices. The next 10 years will not be like the last 80 years. We need to stop pretending it is business as usual. It's not!

Why did I choose GST over a wealth tax or increasing taxes on our miners? In my opinion, the Government would meet too much organised resistance, slowing the process down. This needs to happen quickly. It won't be easy, just easier, and therefore quicker.

We also need to bring in conscription for all working-age males and females. The next war will be fought remotely. In the next war, you won't need strength and endurance unless everything else has gone wrong. But that could happen. So forget about age and sex limitations. They won't count. People will live in machines they operate, or they will operate them remotely, or they will make the machines. Small elite teams will infiltrate enemy territory and tag targets for elimination by drones and smart missiles. Front lines will be held by machines which are remotely operated. But lots of people will be needed for all aspects of the defence forces. 

You can't just go straight to conscription. You need to start by promoting free "weekend army fitness camps". Then ask if they'd like to go one level further and teach them bush survival. Then go to the next level. Give people opportunities to promote their fitness and skills and make it flexible enough to fit in with other aspects of their lives. Then promote the hell out of the program with lots of testimonials and how the program positively affects other parts of the lives of participants. Talk about how the participants improved their lives and how they have met new people they never would have met if not for the program. Don't put those testimonials in uniform. That's too much of a leap. Make it feel like scouts for grown-ups. The way the defence forces are promoting their services right now is way over the top. No one wants to go to war. But people would love some help in improving their lives for free. 

This approach might adversely affect the fitness industry. Offer fitness instructor contracts to these people and give them bonuses if they bring people from their fitness centers to the weekend camps. Turn these people into defence force recruiters. They don't have to join the defence forces to be helpful.

If war breaks out, all our citizens should not run to our leaders and scream, "What do we do now?!". Every citizen should know their job, know how to do their job, because they have practised it numerous times. We need a "Monash" style plan that everyone can be invested in and have faith in. It needs to be a plan which, even if known by the enemy, is difficult to counter. We need a plan which galvanises the entire country, much like the Finnish population does. It is not war mongering. It's preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.

You know, it's so easy to say these things and scream to the population of Australia to wake up. The threat is so near. Can't you feel it? We need to prepare now! The world is becoming more destabilised by the month. As it does, more and more bad decisions will be made because the people who destabilised the world are still in power. We need to prepare now. The more we delay, the more of a disadvantage we will experience. 

We worry about China's creeping chequebook diplomacy in the Pacific. We struggle to counter this policy. We need to give them some of their own medicine. We need to fund and support the PDF and NUG vigorously in Burma. People like Sean Turnell and many expat Burmese who live in Australia could help pursue this path wisely. I don't know if this is wise, but a missile launcher that can shoot down a fighter plane which bombs  Burmese schools and villages provided to the PDF would be a good start. Training from the ADF would help as well. For goodness sake, we trained their police force for a while. Now let's train the right people. It can't be done overtly because we need to maintain trade relations with China. All activity must be couched in humanitarian relations and the legitimate restoration of democracy to Burma. We should also put forward the argument that it is the only path to stability in the Southeast Asian region, and all the ASEAN nations know it, even if they won't publicly admit it. 

The irony is that China, which is supporting the military dictatorship, had a more stable relationship when Burma was a democracy. Now, under a dictatorship, China needs to deal with constant chaos.